"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Preference Cascade Update

Remember when the Dems ran ads with Ryan pushing a grandmother in a wheelchair off a cliff?   Well, Romney can push Obama off a cliff tonight with the second debate.   The polls are already showing a big shift to Romney:

1.  Gallup's tracking poll of likely voters has Romney up four points today.
2.  Rasmussen has Romney up 2 points.
3.  Other recent polls are showing Obama leading or the race tied only because they are skewing hard to Democrats, an unreasonable expectation for turnout in November:  Washington Post (D+9 with Obama up three) and IBD/TIPP (D+7 with the race tied).   If turnout is evenly split, these polls would show Romney with significant leads.

Expect Democratic panic if Obama does poorly again.   And I mean raging, in the streets, pull out all the stops, wag the dog panic.

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