"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Friday, February 10, 2012

Santorum Preference Cascade

Fox News' polling over the past four days:


The key numbers are in the last column.   Before Tuesday's contests in Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota, national polling showed Romney with a 9 point lead over Gingrich, and Gingrich with another 9 point lead over third-place Santorum.   After Santorum's victories in those three contests, Santorum's support jumped 13 points, Gingrich's collapsed 10, and Romney's collapsed five, meaning that Santorum took some support both from Gingrich (as the putative conservative candidate) and from Romney (as the putative "electable" candidate).   Conservatives decided practically overnight that Santorum was a better option than Gingrich, and at least some Republicans decided practically overnight that Romney wasn't so electable if he couldn't win any of the three contests.   It will be very interesting to see where the polling is in another few days on Gallup and Rasmussen and others, but it could be that Santorum could be the frontrunner within a couple of days.    Stranger things have happened.

A caveat:   this is a small poll, with a big margin for error, in an extremely volatile election.  

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