"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Friday, October 7, 2011

Preference Cascade Update

The opposition -- and the intensity of opposition -- to President Obama is solidifying.   Before August 2011, Rasmussen's polling had Obama at an approval index rating of  negative 20 or worse (strong approval minus strong disapproval) only intermittently, with -20 daily ratings once in 2009 (a single day in December), only a few times per month in 2010 (with a high of five daily ratings of -20 or worse in September 2010, leading up to the mid-term elections), and only a few times per month throughout 2011 until August.   In August 2011 -- and I trace this to Obama going on vacation to Martha's Vineyard at a time when unemployment was still high and the debt crisis had metastasized -- Obama had ratings of -20 or worse on 21 out of 31 polling days, with a monthly average of -21.   In September 2011, Obama again had an average approval index rating of -21, with ratings below -20 on 22 out of 30 days.   In October so far, he's had approval index ratings below -20 every day, with his average dropping to -23 for the first week of the month.  

In other words, the people who strongly disapprove of Obama now seem to be fully convinced that he needs to go, and the people who strongly approve of him seem to be reduced to a stable, small contingent of true believers.   The consensus opinion on Obama now seems carved in stone:  incompetent loser.

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